Most of this week’s trade news came out of the G20 trade ministers’ meeting in Milwaukee on September 30 and October 1. Canada’s steel quotas also entered a new quarter, and U.S. data shows where construction demand is concentrated.
1. CUSMA: the 2027 review file is open
On October 2 the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced a public consultation ahead of the 2027 annual joint review of CUSMA. The Federal Register notice, published October 5, confirms the sequence covered in last week’s briefing: because the United States did not agree to a new 16-year term at the July 1, 2026 review, the parties now review the agreement every year until all three confirm an extension or it expires on July 1, 2036. Comments and requests to testify at the public hearing are due January 12, 2027.
What it means for you: this notice changes nothing at the border. The January submissions will signal what Washington presses for in 2027, so keep certificates of origin and change-in-law clauses current on cross-border work.
2. The Milwaukee Framework puts melt-and-pour data at the centre
On September 30 the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity, whose 28 members include Canada and Türkiye, adopted a Comprehensive Framework for Joint Action. The ministerial statement projects global excess capacity rising from 601 million tonnes in 2024 to 745 million tonnes by 2028 and records Chinese steel exports of 131 million tonnes in 2025. Members intend to collect and publish more steel trade data, including “country of melt and pour” information from importers, share data to detect circumvention, pursue anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard cases, including possible self-initiation, and, where appropriate, apply trade measures to steel and steel-containing derivative products from sources of excess capacity.
What it means for you: expect more trade remedy activity and more questions about where steel was first melted. Canada already requires importers to state the country of melt and pour as a condition of its steel quota permits. Ask suppliers for heat-traceable mill certificates that show the melting country, particularly for pipe, flanges and fittings made from purchased billet or slab; our EN 10204 3.1 and 3.2 guide explains what a usable certificate should show.
3. Türkiye and the EU: two October milestones
Canada’s Minister of International Trade, Maninder Sidhu, met Türkiye’s Trade Minister Ömer Bolat in Milwaukee on September 30. Minister Bolat said afterwards that both sides reaffirmed the aim of completing the exploratory free trade talks by the end of October; the leaders’ July 7 statement launching negotiations says technical teams will define the agreement’s scope before a first negotiating round. Minister Sidhu also met Maroš Šefčovič, EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, and the Global Affairs Canada readout confirms the Canada-EU Summit in Montréal on October 29 and 30.
What it means for you: neither track changes duties this quarter, and Turkish-origin steel stays in the non-FTA quota tier at least until an agreement is in force (see our Canada–Türkiye FTA explainer). For EU-origin goods, CETA treatment rests on the exporter’s origin declaration on the invoice or another commercial document (CBSA Memorandum D11-4-2), so check it on every shipment.
4. Steel quotas: the second quarter of year two is open
Canada’s steel tariff rate quotas entered a new quarter on September 30. Under Notice to Importers Serial No. 1163, it runs to December 29, 2026 with unchanged volumes. For standard pipe, the quota is 10,369.2 tonnes for non-FTA origins, with any single country capped at 21% (about 2,178 tonnes), and 13,489.5 tonnes for FTA partners with a 58% cap. Shipment-specific import permits are issued first come, first served until the country cap or the overall quota runs out, and volumes above either limit attract a 50% surtax.
What it means for you: for a non-FTA origin such as Türkiye, all Canadian importers draw on the same ceiling of about 2,178 tonnes of standard pipe per quarter. Quota is used the moment a permit is issued, requests open 15 days before the expected entry date, and that date decides which quarter the quota comes from. Unused volume does not carry over; the daily utilization reports show how fast each class fills.
5. U.S. construction: data centres and power lead
The U.S. Census Bureau’s August construction spending release put total spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,203.1 billion, 0.9% above July (within the margin of error) and 1.7% below a year earlier. Private office spending, where the Bureau reports data centres, rose 4.6% in the month and 29.8% year over year; private power rose 9.7% and private manufacturing fell 19.8% over the year. Associated Builders and Contractors puts data centre spending alone up 7.5% in August and over 73% in twelve months.
What it means for you: data centre and power projects draw on the same pre-action valves, fire pumps and large-diameter valves as Canadian jobs, so release long-lead items early for first-quarter 2027 work. Our data centre fire protection article covers the systems involved.
Bottom line
This week added process rather than new duties. Buyers who document origin and melt location and apply early for quota permits will be best placed.
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